Beyond Nawaz Sharif – PML-N’s Road to Power

The political landscape of Pakistan has always been unpredictable, with power shifting between different parties and military interventions shaping the country’s governance. One of the most influential political figures in Pakistan’s history, Nawaz Sharif, has been at the center of many such transitions. Having served as Prime Minister three times, his leadership has been marked by both economic progress and legal troubles.

As Pakistan prepares for its next general elections, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is strategizing its comeback under Nawaz Sharif’s leadership. With challenges from rival parties, judicial hurdles, and shifting voter sentiment, the question remains: Can Nawaz Sharif regain power?

Nawaz Sharif’s Political Legacy

Nawaz Sharif’s political career has been one of resilience and controversy. His tenure as Prime Minister saw significant infrastructural development, economic growth, and foreign policy shifts. Some of his notable achievements include:

• Expansion of Pakistan’s road and motorway network (long debate of massive corruption in tenders)

• Initiation of power generation projects to reduce load shedding (long debate of expensive IPP Power Plants contracts)

• Strengthening economic ties with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (Project was initiated by State of Pakistan actually)

However, his leadership has also been tainted by corruption allegations, including the Panama Papers scandal, which led to his disqualification in 2017. Despite these challenges, Nawaz Sharif remains a key figure in Pakistani politics.

The 2017 Disqualification and Its Impact

In a landmark decision, the Supreme Court of Pakistan disqualified Nawaz Sharif from holding public office in 2017. This ruling, based on corruption charges linked to the Panama Papers, created political turmoil within PML-N. Key impacts of this decision included:

• A leadership vacuum in PML-N, with Shahbaz Sharif taking charge

• Public protests and legal battles

• A significant decline in PML-N’s popularity, setting the stage for PTI’s victory in 2018

Despite stepping away from the political forefront, Nawaz Sharif continued to influence party decisions from London. His disqualification remains a defining moment in Pakistan’s political history.

PML-N’s Decline in the 2018 Elections

The 2018 general elections marked a turning point for Pakistani politics as Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged victorious. Several factors contributed to PML-N’s decline:

• Judicial and military influence – Allegations that the establishment favored PTI

• Corruption scandals – Nawaz Sharif’s legal troubles damaged the party’s reputation

• Economic challenges – Rising inflation and financial instability hurt PML-N’s credibility

PML-N’s defeat in 2018 pushed the party into opposition, forcing it to reassess its strategy for a political comeback.

Nawaz Sharif’s Return to Pakistan

After spending years in self-imposed exile, Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan has sparked political debate. His comeback was crucial for PML-N’s revival, but filled with challenges:

• Legal battles – Pending court cases and potential arrests were negated and closed by the judiciary with the facilitation by the establishment to depict him as savior of nation in comparison of Imran Khan

• Public perception – Mixed reactions, with some supporting his leadership and others accusing him of corruption

• Internal party unity – Maintaining coherence within PML-N while balancing power with Maryam Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif

Nawaz Sharif’s return signals a shift in Pakistan’s political landscape, but whether he can successfully lead PML-N to power remains questionable.

PML-N’s Comeback Strategy

For PML-N to regain power, it needs a well-crafted political strategy that addresses the current political and economic challenges in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif and his party are focusing on several key areas:

Economic Promises and Policy Reforms

Nawaz Sharif’s previous tenure is often credited with economic progress, and PML-N is using this track record to win back voter confidence. Some key promises include:

• Controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy

• Reviving major infrastructure projects like motorways and CPEC

• Reducing unemployment by attracting foreign investment

These economic promises are designed to appeal to the middle class and business community, which has been heavily affected by the recent economic crisis.

Alliances with Other Political Parties

In Pakistan’s political system, forming alliances is crucial. PML-N is attempting to build coalitions with other opposition parties, including:

• Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) – A potential alliance to counter PTI

• Religious and regional parties – Strengthening support in key provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan

• Independent candidates – Encouraging electables to join PML-N

These alliances could help PML-N gain a broader voter base and increase its chances of securing a majority in the upcoming elections.

Media and Social Media Campaigns

In today’s digital age, media presence is essential for political success. PML-N is focusing on:

• Using mainstream media to highlight Nawaz Sharif’s achievements

• Engaging with younger voters through social media platforms like Twitter, TikTok, and Facebook

• Countering PTI’s strong social media influence with aggressive online campaigning

By leveraging media and technology, PML-N aims to reshape public perception and counter negative narratives against Nawaz Sharif.

Challenges Nawaz Sharif Faces

While PML-N’s comeback strategy is ambitious, Nawaz Sharif faces several challenges that could hinder his return to power.

Competition from PTI and PPP

PTI, led by Imran Khan, remains a major political force in Pakistan, especially among young voters. Key challenges include:

• PTI’s narrative of “change” and anti-corruption

• PPP’s resurgence in Sindh and attempts to expand nationally

• Divisions within PML-N over leadership between Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif

PML-N must counter these challenges through strategic alliances and effective campaigning.

Public Trust and Economic Concerns

Many voters blame past governments, including PML-N, for Pakistan’s economic struggles. Convincing the public that Nawaz Sharif can solve these issues will be a major challenge. PML-N must present clear solutions for:

• Reducing inflation

• Strengthening the rupee

• Attracting foreign investment

Winning back public trust is critical for PML-N’s electoral success.

The Role of the Establishment

Pakistan’s political history is deeply influenced by the establishment, including the military and judiciary. Nawaz Sharif has had a rocky relationship with these institutions, leading to multiple oustings from power.

Military’s Stance on Nawaz Sharif’s Return

Historically, the military has played a role in Pakistan’s political shifts. Key questions remain:

• Will the military support Nawaz Sharif’s return, or oppose him?

• Is PML-N willing to compromise with the establishment to regain power?

• How will civil-military relations impact the upcoming elections?

A positive relationship with the establishment could strengthen PML-N’s chances, while conflicts could create new challenges.

Past Civil-Military Tensions

Nawaz Sharif has had conflicts with military leadership in the past, leading to:

• His removal in 1999 through a military coup

• Tensions over policy decisions, including foreign relations with India

• Allegations of the establishment supporting PTI in 2018

PML-N must carefully navigate these tensions to avoid history repeating itself.

Economic Factors Affecting PML-N’s Strategy

Pakistan is facing a severe economic crisis, which will heavily influence the upcoming elections. PML-N’s economic track record will be a major factor in voter decisions.

Inflation and Economic Crisis

Rising inflation and unemployment have frustrated the public. PML-N is promising to:

• Introduce subsidies to reduce the burden on citizens

• Strengthen the rupee against the dollar

• Create more job opportunities through industrial development

However, PTI will likely blame past governments, including PML-N, for the current economic crisis, making it a major battleground issue.

Nawaz Sharif’s Economic Track Record

During Nawaz Sharif’s previous terms, Pakistan saw:

• Stable GDP growth

• Improved infrastructure and road networks

• Strengthened trade relations with China and Gulf states

PML-N is using this record to argue that Nawaz Sharif is the best leader to fix Pakistan’s economy.

The Voter Sentiment and Public Support

Public perception plays a major role in election outcomes. PML-N must assess voter sentiment and adjust its strategy accordingly.

Rural vs. Urban Voter Base

PML-N has traditionally been strong in Punjab, but PTI has made inroads in both urban and rural areas. The party must:

• Regain support in major cities like Lahore and Faisalabad

• Strengthen its rural voter base through development promises

• Counter PTI’s influence in KP and urban Punjab

Young Voters’ Preference for PTI

The younger generation has been a strong supporter of PTI, driven by Imran Khan’s anti-corruption narrative. PML-N must:

• Engage young voters through social media campaigns

• Present Nawaz Sharif as a leader who delivers results

• Address youth concerns, including employment and education

Winning over young voters is crucial for PML-N’s success.

Role of Maryam Nawaz in PML-N’s Future

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has been actively working on a comeback strategy to regain power, with Nawaz Sharif at the helm. However, its involvement in the 2022 regime change operation against Imran Khan and the aftermath of the February 8, 2024, elections have significantly impacted its political standing. Here’s an analysis of the situation:

Nawaz Sharif’s Return & Political Rehabilitation

• • Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan in October 2023 after four years in self-exile, aiming to reclaim his political influence.
  • His legal team worked to get his convictions (in the Avenfield, Al-Azizia, and Panama cases) overturned or suspended.
  • PML-N positioned him as a “victim of political victimization” to regain public sympathy.

Alliance-Building

• • PML-N strengthened ties with key power players, including the military establishment and coalition partners like the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).
  • It also tried to mend fences with smaller parties (MQM-P, JUI-F) to form a stable government post-2024 elections.

Economic & Governance Narrative

• • PML-N marketed itself as the party best suited to stabilize Pakistan’s economy, citing Nawaz Sharif’s past economic growth record (2013-2017).
  • Shehbaz Sharif’s interim government (April 2022–August 2023) tried to manage IMF negotiations and inflation, but high prices hurt PML-N’s popularity.

Impact of Regime Change Operation (2022)

PML-N, along with PPP and establishment-backed allies, played a key role in ousting Imran Khan via a no-confidence vote in April 2022 which resulted in exit of Imran Khan from the government.

• This move backfired politically:
  • Imran Khan’s narrative of a “US-backed conspiracy” gained traction, mobilizing his voter base.
  • PML-N was seen as part of an “elitist conspiracy,” losing support among anti-establishment voters.
  • Economic instability under Shehbaz Sharif’s government further damaged PML-N’s credibility.

Aftermath of February 8, 2024 Elections

8th Feb 2024 elections of Pakistan stirs more turmoil in the national politics which eventually back fired as

1. Unexpected Setback
   • Despite expectations of a smooth victory (allegedly backed by the establishment), PML-N failed to secure a clear majority.)
   • Independent candidates (mostly backed by Imran Khan’s PTI) won the most seats, though PML-N emerged as the largest single party.
2. Coalition Government Formation
   • PML-N formed a weak coalition with PPP, MQM-P, and others, making Shehbaz Sharif Prime Minister again.
   • Nawaz Sharif did not become PM, possibly due to legal hurdles or establishment preferences.
3. Public Perception & Legitimacy Crisis
   • The election was marred by allegations of rigging, internet shutdowns, and delayed results, hurting PML-N’s legitimacy.
   • PTI’s continued popularity (despite crackdowns) suggests PML-N lacks a strong public mandate.

Can Nawaz Sharif Regain Power?

• Challenges:
  • PTI’s Popularity: Imran Khan’s narrative still resonates with youth and urban voters.
  • Economic Crisis: Rising inflation and IMF demands make governance difficult.
  • Coalition Instability: PPP’s limited support weakens PML-N’s policymaking.
  • Establishment Dynamics: If the military shifts its support, PML-N could face further decline.
• Opportunities:
  • If Nawaz Sharif can rebuild his “development icon” image and stabilize the economy, he may regain some support.
  • A split in PTI or weakening of Imran Khan’s influence could benefit PML-N.
  • Potential constitutional or legal changes could strengthen his position.

While dynastic politics has helped the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) maintain cohesion and continuity of Hybrid rule, it has also become a major obstacle to the party’s revival, especially in the face of rising anti-establishment and anti-elitist sentiment in Pakistan. Below are the key ways in which dynastic politics is limiting PML-N’s resurgence:

Alienation of the Youth & Urban Middle Class

• PTI’s Success with Anti-Dynasty Rhetoric: Imran Khan’s narrative against “family-dominated politics” resonated with young voters, who see PML-N as an outdated, nepotistic party.
• Lack of Meritocracy: The dominance of the Sharif family (Nawaz, Shehbaz, Maryam, Hamza) discourages talented outsiders from rising within the party, making it less appealing to professionals and reformists.
• Perception of Entitlement: The automatic promotion of Maryam Nawaz as the party’s chief organizer and future leader—despite limited administrative experience—fuels accusations of elitism.

Stifling Internal Democracy & Innovation

• No Room for New Leadership: Opportunist loyalists like Khawaja Asif, Ahsan Iqbal, Rana Sanaullah and many others remain secondary to the Sharif family, leading to frustration among senior leaders.
• Resistance to Reform: Younger, tech-savvy leaders who could modernize the party’s outreach (e.g., social media, policy innovation) are overshadowed by family members.
• Risk of Succession Struggles: If Maryam fails to deliver, the party lacks a clear alternative, as no strong non-family leader has been groomed.

Overdependence on Nawaz Sharif’s Legacy

• Nostalgia vs. Current Realities: PML-N relies heavily on Nawaz Sharif’s 1990s and 2013–2017 governance record, but this does not address today’s economic and political crises.
• Limited Adaptability: The party struggles to rebrand itself beyond “Nawaz’s party,” making it difficult to attract new voter segments.

Electoral Backlash in a Changing Political Landscape

• Declining Performance in Key Urban Areas: In the 2024 elections, PML-N lost several traditional strongholds (e.g., Lahore’s NA-128, Rawalpindi) to PTI-backed independents, signaling voter fatigue with dynasty politics.
• Failure to Expand Beyond Punjab: Unlike PTI, which gained nationwide traction, PML-N remains Punjab-centric, partly because its leadership is seen as a “Sharif family enterprise” rather than a national movement.

Erosion of Credibility Amid Corruption Allegations

• Dynasty = Corruption Perception: The Sharif family’s legal troubles (Panama Papers, Avenfield references) reinforce the image of PML-N as a corrupt elite club.
• No Fresh Faces to Reset Image: Without new leadership, the party cannot distance itself from past scandals.

Can PML-N Overcome the Dynastic Trap?

For PML-N to revive itself, it must:

1. Promote Merit-Based Leadership – Allow non-family leaders to take center stage in policy and elections.
2. Modernize Its Appeal – Invest in grassroots movements, youth engagement, and digital campaigning beyond just family rallies.
3. Decentralize Decision-Making – Reduce reliance on Raiwind (Sharif family’s estate) for all major decisions.
4. Rebrand as a Policy-Driven Party – Shift focus from Nawaz’s personal legacy to concrete solutions for inflation, energy, and governance.

Dynastic politics was once PML-N’s strength, but it has now become its biggest liability. In an era where voters demand accountability, inclusivity, and fresh leadership, the party’s reliance on the Sharif family risks making it irrelevant. Unless it reforms, PML-N may continue to lose ground to parties like PTI, which—despite its own flaws—successfully positioned itself as an anti-establishment, anti-dynasty alternative.