Operation True Promise 4

In a dramatic and swift response to the joint US-Israeli strikes known as Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, Iran launched its own large-scale military offensive on February 28, 2026. Codenamed Operation True Promise 4 (وعده صادق ۴), this campaign marks the fourth and most significant direct military confrontation between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, fundamentally altering the security landscape of the Middle East .

This post provides a comprehensive overview of Operation True Promise 4, including its scale, strategic objectives, damages inflicted, regional impact, and the way forward.

What is Operation True Promise 4?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched Operation True Promise 4 as a retaliatory campaign against the United States and Israel within hours of their strikes that decimated Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. Tehran frames the operation as a “no-red-line” response to what it calls “unprovoked American-Zionist aggression.”

The primary objectives of the operation are:

• Avenge the Leadership: Retaliate for the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior IRGC and military commanders .

• Saturate Enemy Defenses: Overwhelm the integrated air defense systems of the US and its regional allies through massive, multi-wave missile and drone barrages .

• Strategic Blockade: Disrupt global oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz using asymmetric naval warfare tactics .

• Activate the “Axis of Resistance”: Coordinate attacks with proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen to widen the conflict and stretch enemy resources .

The Scale of the Operation

Operation True Promise 4 is unprecedented in its scale, involving thousands of projectiles launched over multiple waves across a vast geographical area.

• Multi-Wave Campaign: Forces have conducted the operation in successive waves. By March 9, the IRGC had executed its 30th wave of strikes, demonstrating sustained operational capacity. Initially, forces focused their attacks on Israel, and subsequently, they targeted U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf.

• Volume of Fire: Estimates suggest that over the first six days, Iran launched over 1,000 drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles .

• Advanced Weaponry: Iran deployed a mix of systems, including Khorramshahr, Fattah, Emad, Qadr, and Khaibar Shekan missiles. The Khaibar Shekan, in particular, boasts a 1,450 km range and high maneuverability, designed to evade interceptors. Forces deployed swarms of loitering munitions like the Shahed-136 to saturate air defenses.

• Geographic Scope: The IRGC reported striking targets across nine countries, including Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and the Republic of Cyprus, as well as Israel itself.

Key Targets and Confirmed Damage

The operation has successfully struck a wide array of military, naval, and infrastructure targets.

U.S. Military Assets

• Naval Facilities: Drones heavily damaged the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain’s Juffair district and struck the U.S. naval base in Mina Salman, destroying command centers. In Kuwait, the attacks reportedly forced the Ali Al-Salem naval base out of operation.

• Air Bases: Forces targeted Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest US air base in the Middle East, and Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. In later waves, they repeatedly struck Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, a key hub for US aviation units.

• Radar and Defense Systems: Precision strikes destroyed advanced US radar systems, including the AN/FPS-132 in Qatar, AN/GSC-52B in Bahrain, and AN/TPY-2 in the UAE and Jordan, degrading the coalition’s aerial surveillance capabilities .

• Naval Vessels: The IRGC claimed to have successfully targeted the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with four ballistic missiles. Attacks struck and set ablaze three US and British oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

The following table summarizes the key damages reported by Iranian authorities.

US Casualties Reported by Iran

The IRGC has provided specific figures for American casualties, which it claims are based on “intelligence as well as all field reports” .

• First Two Days: Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini said that Iranian strikes killed and wounded over 650 U.S. military personnel within the first 48 hours of the operation. This figure included a claim of 160 US servicemen killed and wounded in a single strike on a “key US military site” in Bahrain.

• Waves 7 & 8: Forces struck in successive waves, and the IRGC later stated that these attacks killed and wounded about 560 U.S. military personnel.

• Erbil Attack: An attack on a US base at Erbil Airport was reported to have killed 11 Americans

Operation True Promise 4 inflicted leadership and military casualties and struck Israel’s strategic infrastructure, according to Iranian sources and international news reports.

Here is a breakdown of the damages specifically inflicted upon Israel, as claimed by Iranian sources.

Israeli Territory

• Haifa and Tel Aviv: Missiles directly impacted areas in Haifa, with Israeli media confirming thick columns of smoke rising from targeted sites. The Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv and the Ramat David airbase were also hit .

• Civilian Impact: In the UAE, Iranian missile debris fell on residential areas in Abu Dhabi (Saadiyat Island, Khalifa City), killing one Asian civilian and marking the first confirmed civilian fatality in the Gulf states.

Damages Inflicted on Israel

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has provided detailed accounts of its strikes through a series of statements. The key damages reported include:

Leadership and High-Value Targets

• • Prime Minister’s Office: The IRGC announced that it successfully targeted the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv during the 10th wave of the operation. Israeli authorities did not confirm the Prime Minister’s status at the time of the strike.

  • Military Leadership: Strikes also reportedly targeted the location of the Israeli Air Force commander  and the General Staff of the Israeli army in the Hakirya area of Tel Aviv .

Military and Strategic Infrastructure

• • Ministry of War (HaKirya): Airstrikes repeatedly hit the Hakirya area in Tel Aviv, which houses Israel’s Ministry of War and defense establishment complex.

  • Air Bases: Forces struck several key air bases, including Ramat David Airbase and the Meron radar site, and also targeted Tel Nof Airbase.

  • Naval Facilities: Forces targeted the Zionist naval base at Haifa port, focusing on the anchorage point for warships.

  • Other Military Sites: Strikes hit a military center in the Western Galilee , military targets in Petah Tikva (northeast of Tel Aviv) , the Beit Shemesh military-industrial town , and the Ashdod military industries center.

Infrastructure and Civilian Areas

• • Bnei Brak: Forces reportedly struck strategic infrastructure in Bnei Brak, east of Tel Aviv.

  • Ben Gurion Airport: The IRGC claimed to have launched Khorramshahr ballistic missiles equipped with heavy warheads at Ben Gurion Airport. Other reports confirmed that runway damage temporarily closed the airport.

  • Haifa and Tel Aviv: Missiles and drones impacted areas in Haifa and central Tel Aviv, with videos on social media showing explosions and smoke rising from these areas.

Casualties and Scale of Attacks

• Casualties: By the fourth day of the operation, the IRGC claimed over 680 Israeli casualties, while later Israeli reports suggested more than 200 casualties from the missile barrages, likely reflecting preliminary or differing counts.

• Volume of Fire: As part of the broader operation targeting both US and Israeli assets, Iran launched a massive number of projectiles. By the sixth day, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters reported launching over 2,000 drones and more than 600 missiles . The US Central Command also confirmed that Iran had launched over 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones in its retaliation.

Iranian military sources report these figures and target claims, though independent and Israeli confirmations vary, presenting the damage they say their forces inflicted during Operation True Promise 4.

“Axis of Resistance” Coordination

• Hezbollah (Lebanon): On March 2, Hezbollah ended its fragile ceasefire, firing precision missiles and drones at the Mishmar HaCarmel base south of Haifa and other northern Israeli positions in direct response to Khamenei’s killing .

• Islamic Resistance in Iraq: This umbrella group conducted 24 operations within a 24-hour window, including drone strikes on the Harir base in northern Iraq and the Victoria base at Baghdad Airport .

• Houthis (Yemen): While initially cautious, the Houthis held mass demonstrations in support of Iran, and there is a high probability of them re-entering the conflict to target Red Sea shipping.

Regional and Global Impact

The conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy and regional stability.

• Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Although the US sank much of Iran’s conventional navy, Iran’s asymmetric capabilities have effectively closed the strait. Tanker traffic has dropped by approximately 90% , spiking global oil prices.

• Airspace Closure: Multiple nations, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, and Gulf states, have closed their airspace, grounding all civilian air travel in and out of the conflict zone .

• Cyber Warfare: Beyond kinetic strikes, the conflict has a significant cyber dimension. Pro-Iranian groups have launched cyberattacks on Israeli banks and government websites, while US Cyber Command is disrupting Iranian communications.

International Reaction:

• • UK, France, Germany: Issued a joint statement urging Iran to “seek a negotiated solution” and confirming they did not participate in the initial strikes, though the UK is conducting defensive patrols .

  • Russia: Condemned the US-Israeli strikes as a “reckless move” .

  • Saudi Arabia: Denounced the Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf states, affirming solidarity with Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait .

  • UN: Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities,” warning of “grave consequences for civilians”.

Way Forward: Continuity and Escalation

The conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. In fact, it has entered a new, potentially more dangerous phase with the succession of Iran’s leadership.

• New Supreme Leader: The Temporary Assembly of Experts swiftly elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Ayatollah’s son, as the new Supreme Leader. This ensures continuity of the hardline revolutionary ideology and strengthens the IRGC’s hand in military decision-making.

• Sustained Military Pressure: The IRGC has vowed to continue the waves of Operation True Promise 4 relentlessly and with increasing intensity until it decisively defeats the enemy.

• Israeli Preparations: Israel has raised alert levels, reinforced air defenses, and drafted plans for a conflict potentially lasting at least one month . Israeli Parliament Speaker Amir Ohana issued a direct threat to the new Supreme Leader, posting images of assassinated leaders with the warning, “Whoever follows their path will become like them”.

• The “Mosaic Defense” Doctrine: With its central command structure degraded, Iran is relying on a pre-planned “Mosaic Defense” doctrine. Local commanders retain autonomous authority to continue operations even if Tehran loses communication with them, making the conflict’s trajectory highly unpredictable.

Operation True Promise 4 shows Iran projecting asymmetric power across the Middle East, striking US bases, targeting Israeli cities, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and activating its proxies. Despite leadership losses, Tehran retains multi-front war capabilities, while the region prepares for a prolonged and devastating conflict.

Also Refer

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